How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could affect the Middle East – analysis - The Jewish Voice
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Monday, September 26, 2022

How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could affect the Middle East – analysis

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By Baruch Yedid and Aryeh Savir/TPS

Russia’s onslaught in Ukraine and its declaration of war in Europe on Thursday morning could have detrimental ramifications on the already high tensions in the Middle East.

Beyond the far-reaching economic effects of rising oil prices, which have already risen by 25% this morning, and beyond the rise in wheat prices, as Ukraine is one of the largest grain depots in the world, it is expected that Russia’s invasion will lead to some far-reaching changes in the Middle East.

There could be a change in Russia’s policy towards Israel’s freedom of action in attacking Hezbollah and Iranian terror targets deep inside Syria.

Jerusalem and the Kremlin maintain an open line of communication to prevent accidental military clashes between the IDF operating in Syria and Russian forces operating on behalf of Bashar al-Assad.

Most significantly, the weakness of the U.S. and Europe, and the U.S.’ turn towards a withdrawal from the Middle East — as recently witnessed in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria — will reinvigorate the extremist forces in the arealed by Iran.

One can already see in the Gulf the escalation on the part of the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iran’s proxies who dared to bomb Saudi Arabia’s fuel reserves, and more recently, the United Arab Emirates.

It can be assumed that the Iranians are now looking with great satisfaction at the American weakness and understand that there is no chance the U.S. will act militarily against their nuclear program.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes just days before what appears to be the signing of a new nuclear deal that will ultimately pave the way for the Iranian nuclear bomb and remove sanctions from the global supporter of terrorism, which will now have billions to invest in its terror network in the Middle East and beyond.

‘A new world order’

Another significant point is the scope and ferocity of the Russian attack and the West’s lack of response. Russia has mercilessly bombed an entire country, an independent and pro-Western country in the heart of Europe, and the West is essentially sitting on its hands, still singing the merits of diplomacy.

Israel must note this crucial issue and learn about the American failure to back its allies, especially in the context of a nuclear Iran.

IDF Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen wrote Thursday that “what is happening in Europe is not a dream, we are witnessing the emergence of a new world order. The West, of course, is greatly absent.”

“The idea is that the new formative force on the global scale is Russia, which will return to its ‘greatness’ as a power, perhaps not the USSR, but NATO will no longer expand and no country will join the European Union anymore.”

“China of course is on Russia’s side as it has interests in Taiwan and Hong Kong,” he pointed out.

The Americans “will no longer be as determined as they used to be. We are witnessing the decline of the West that has inflicted disaster on itself through supposed lofty values ​​that are allowing it to commit suicide, freely and consciously,” he warned.

The emerging renewed nuclear deal, too, is “nothing but a fruit of American naivety, a continuation of the naivety that characterized the Obama administration,” he said.

The question, he asked, is how Israel “benefits from this situation.”

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