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SoHo Crypto Startup Allows Users to Bet on Outcome of News Events

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By:  Marty Raminoff

A SoHo start-up allows users to bet on outcomes of news events and a wide array of topics including whether Britney Spears will be successful in court in freeing herself from her father’s conservatorship.

Polymarket lets gamblers wager on political affairs including future COVID-19 vaccination rates, the fate of Governor Andrew Cuomo, and the next president of the United States.  As reported by the NY Post, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said his company acts as a public barometer for predicting all sorts of things, enabling anonymous gamblers to set the market for what might occur across the political, economic and social landscape.

“It actually gives the utmost accurate forecast of the future — by way of letting people bet,” said the 23-year-old entrepreneur. Coplan, a computer science student who dropped out of NYU to start the company, says the app is interesting even to non-betters, who are trying to analyze newsworthy issues. The odds of different outcomes constantly change based on user activity, just like on Wall Street, with buying and selling of “shares” 24 hours a day.

The startup was launched in 2017 and raised $4 million from venture capitalists last year, as per Pitchbook.  Like betting on sports or horse racing, it’s a quick way to win or lose big. The all-time leader has claimed winnings of $566,080, while the biggest loser is out $1,093,669, as per Polymarket Whales, a website tracking bettors.

The company is based on cryptocurrencies that are convertible to cash. To start making bets, users need to buy two cryptocurrencies.  USDC, which is pegged to the dollar one-to-one, is used to buying and selling shares.  Ethereum, which is the second-largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin, is used to cover the “gas,” or crypto-network transaction fees.

As an example, in wagering on Spears’ case, users can bet yes or no to the pop star’s father James Parnell Spears being removed from or quitting his position as her conservator by Oct. 1.  Favoring the singer is apparently a longshot, with Polymarket giving her just a 27 percent chance of success by that date.  If your $100 bet comes through, you’d win about $259, as of Monday afternoon. Betting on her dad seems to have better chances of paying out, but the maximum possible profit on that $100 investment would be $34.

Other popular bets include whether Andrew Cuomo will still be governor on Jan. 2022, with yes at $0.24; and If Joe Biden will be president in Sept. 30 2021, with yes at $0.97.

 

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