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CDC Worst Case Scenario Estimate: 1.7 Million Corona Virus Deaths in US

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By TJV News 

Officials at the US Centers for Disease Control held a conference call last month regarding Corona Virus and laid out a worst-case scenario: Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to dnyuz.com news.

 

CDC officials and epidemic experts from universities around the world conferred last month discussing what would happen if the Coronavirus gained major traction within the United States.

How many would die? How many would be hospitalized? 

 

One of the agency’s top disease modelers, Matthew Biggerstaff, presented the group on the phone call with four possible scenarios — A, B, C and D — based on characteristics of the virus, including estimates of how transmissible it is and the severity of the illness it can cause, dnyuz.com reported.

 

DNYUZ reported: Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.

And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.

 

The NY Times reported the good news regarding this grave model estimate: 

 

“When people change their behavior,” said Lauren Gardner, an associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering who models epidemics, “those model parameters are no longer applicable,” so short-term forecasts are likely to be more accurate. “There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.”

 

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