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Israelis Suspect Obama Media Leaks to Prevent Strike on Iran

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Israeli analysts have accused the Obama administration of purposely leaking two reports to the media that were intended to create pressure on Israel to hold back from attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and for Iran to agree to a compromise in upcoming nuclear discussions.

In the first report, anonymous American officials were quoted as stating that Azerbaijan, which is fairly close to Israel, has granted the Jewish state access to airbases from which Israel could – at the maximum level – launch air strikes on Iran, or – at a minimum level – send out drones and search and rescue aircraft. The second report, which was based on a leaked congressional report, said that Iran’s nuclear facilities are spread out so far and wide that it is “unclear what the ultimate effect of a strike would be…,” and it speculated that a strike could set back Iran’s nuclear program for as little as just six months.

“It seems like a big campaign to prevent Israel from attacking,” analyst Yoel Guzansky at the Institute for National Security Studies told ABC News. “I think the [Obama] administration is really worried Jerusalem will attack and attack soon. They’re trying hard to prevent it in so many ways.” One of the reports quotes an intelligence officer saying, “We’re watching what Iran does closely…But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.” Guzansky asserts that – if it is true – the arrangement with Azerbaijan “totally changes the whole picture,” making it much easier for Israel to strike faster and harder, and negating the need for it to fly 2,200 miles to Iran and back over Iraqi airspace.

In the same vein, the New York Times recently obtained the leaked results of a classified war game, which predicted that an Israeli attack on Iran could lead to a wider regional war and result in hundreds of American deaths. In a Yedioth Ahronoth column entitled “Obama Betraying Israel?” Ron Ben-Yishai angrily condemned the leaks as a “targeted assassination campaign.”

“In recent weeks the administration shifted from persuasion efforts vis-à-vis decision-makers and Israel’s public opinion to a practical, targeted assassination of potential Israeli operations in Iran,” Ben-Yishai writes. “The campaign’s aims are fully operational: To make it more difficult for Israeli decision-makers to order the IDF to carry out a strike, and what’s even graver, to erode the IDF’s capacity to launch such a strike with minimal casualties.”

According to Ben-Yishai, much of the information in the reports has either been published or is simply wrong, but in the case of the report on American knowledge of Iran’s nuclear facilities, “instead of forcing the Iranians to piece together all the assessments themselves, the Congress report offers them everything in one place.”

Military analyst Alex Fishman concurs that the reports pressure both Israel and Iran, but he does not agree that Azerbaijan will serve as a base for Israeli operations. “I don’t believe that there’s news behind this story because it doesn’t make sense. It’s very romantic, very John le Carre, but less practical,” he says, explaining that the airstrips as they are now are far too basic for a “huge wing of airplanes.” Fishman feels that the report’s purpose is “to show the Iranians that something is going on, to make them much more suspicious, much more nervous. You need this pressure in order to put them in a lower position when negotiations start.”

Iran has consented to take part in international nuclear talks this month, which the United States hopes will help prevent a conflict, but which Israel dismisses as merely another stalling tactic by Iran. Asked whether Prime Minister Netanyahu views the reports as pressure from the Obama administration, an Israeli official indicated that they fall into the category of “loose talk” of war that President Obama himself recently criticized. “When we [Netanyahu’s office] were in Washington [in early March], President Obama called publicly for people to tone down the rhetoric,” said the official. “The prime minister has called on ministers not to talk. We agree with Obama that loose talk is not doing anyone any favors.”

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