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Public Opinion Polls Show Netanyahu Cruising to a Decisive Victory in January

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In the first round of public opinion polls taken following the assassination of Hamas military leader Ahmad Jabari and in the midst of the Pillar of Defense Gaza offensive, the Israeli public seems to be satisfied with the leadership of Prime Minister Netanyahu. The Israeli leader saw an immediate bounce of 11 points in his approval rating and is retaining a steady and convincing lead, ahead of the Knesset election this coming January.

While 84 percent of the Israeli public support Operation Pillar of Defense, Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak now have 55 percent and 52 percent approval ratings, respectively, according to a Haaretz-Dialog poll taken Sunday. Although they fell short of the approval ratings of their predecessors, former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former Defense Minister Amir Peretz, at the beginning of the Second Lebanon War – Olmert and Peretz had 85 percent approval ratings for the first week or two of that war – it’s still a much higher level of approval ratings than in previous surveys before the operation, a jump of about 20 percent.

As for the upcoming Knesset elections, Netanyahu‘s joint slate with Avigdor Lieberman’s ‘Likud Beitenu’ party would currently win 41 seats in the 120-member 19th Knesset, if elections were held today. This result would ultimately give Netanyahu the option to form a right-wing coalition government with the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties, who together would win 69 Knesset seats, while the center-left bloc would win only 51 seats, including two belonging to Ehud Barak/Atzmaut.

In a separate poll conducted by Ma’agar Mohot for Channel 2, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s ‘Likud Beitenu’ party would get 39 seats, and an overall right wing bloc majority of 67 mandates. The surprise of the elections could come from Kadima – falling from 28 seats in the 18th Knesset to only 2 seats, and Ehud Barak’s rise in popularity, in the aftermath of a successful Gaza Operation, as Barak already garners four seats in this poll.

A poll taken by Panels for the Israeli Center for Political Training and published in Ma’ariv found that 85 percent of Israelis believe embarking on operation ‘Pillar of Defense’ was a correct decision. 78 percent of Israelis expressed satisfaction with Netanyahu’s performance running the operation.

Additionally, a Midgam poll taken for Channel 10 last Thursday – the first full day of the operation – found that 41 percent believe Netanyahu is fit to handle Israel’s security challenges, compared to 18 percent for Ehud Barak and seven percent for former prime minister Ehud Olmert, who has suspended his possible return to politics.

“If elections were held now, Netanyahu would easily win,” Chamil Fuchs, head of the Statistics and Operations Research Department at Tel Aviv University who conducted the poll for Haaretz told Bloomberg News. “Historically however, the impact of these military operations on the electorate is not lasting.”

Even if it only partially attains its aims, the Gaza operation will benefit Netanyahu, according to Tamir Sheafer, political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

“Surveys usually show that when Israel is engaged in a military operation or active conflict, support in general increases for the right-wing, for more hawkish parties and politicians,” Sheafer told Bloomberg News. “Even now, the political conversation here has shifted from economic and social issues to the security situation. And that works to Netanyahu’s advantage.”

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